By HPRS Owner and Race Director John Lacroix
PREFACE
Around this time every year I present our community with my “State of Our Sport” address. The address is a conversation that focuses on the realized history and predicted evolution of trail and ultramarathon running in the year that’s passed and the year(s) to come. This address seeks to present a variety of facts, such as links to articles and news stories, to paint a picture of the trends that others and I are seeing in our sport. This is an opinion piece, an “op-ed,” that will not only discuss my opinions, but also provide evidence to back up those opinions.
I recognize that not everyone will agree with what is written, or follow the same insight(s) shared, and that’s more than okay. I respectfully ask that those who disagree with anything written below address the subject matter they disagree with by presenting their own facts in a rebuttal. Let’s have a respectful conversation about the subject matter, that includes evidence that backs up our positions, rather than simply attacking the individual providing the narrative.
The discussion herein is based on my personal interpretations of data, education, professional experience, and discussions had with various industry professionals throughout calendar year 2022. Where and when applicable, I will provide a link to source information for the reader to be able to interpret the data on their own accord. Sources, and interpersonal discussion from conferences and working groups include but are not limited to: The Running Event 2022 in Austin Texas, 2022 Colorado Partners in the Outdoors Conference in Vail, 2022 Colorado Outdoor Industry Leadership Summit in Crested Butte, Quarterly updates from RunSignUp.Com, Running Insight, Endurance Sportswire, RunningUSA.org, RRCA newsletters, monthly poll questions in HPRS Newsletters, Ultrarunning Magazine, steering committee meetings with The Coalition for Outdoor Access, discussions in a couple of Race Director Groups on Facebook, and various in-person discussions with other trail and ultra race directors, owners, and brand representatives.
Finally, after discussing the state of our sport below, I hope to highlight specifically my and The Human Potential Running Series’ position and direction in relation to each topic discussed. This is in no way an attempt to convince you that HPRS is right, or the only race series “doing it right,” nor is it intended as any form of commercial. It is to share with you our perspective and direction with regards to each area of discussion; my hope is that it will inspire other race directors and organizations to formulate their own unique directions and that the runner will consider these perspectives when signing up for events moving forward.
2022 DATA
Let’s start by looking at the numbers associated with ultramarathon running in 2022[1], with discussion comparing these numbers to 2021, and pre-covid 2019. These numbers are for North America only.
Number of ultra-distance races in 2022: 2,642
Trend: This is an 18% increase over the 2021 number of races (2,242). If we were to ignore 2020 and focus on the 2019 pre-covid number, then this represents an 8% increase above the number of races in 2019 (2,442).
Number of first timers finishing an ultra-distance in 2022: 29,323
Trend: This is a 12% increase over the 2021 number of first timers (26,260). If we were to ignore 2020 and focus on the 2019 pre-covid number, then this represents a 9% decrease below the number of first timers in 2019 (32,106). In our sport’s history, it is still the second highest number of first timers in a year and not by much over 3rd (2018 26,280).
Number of unique finishers of ultra-distances in 2022: 75,452
Trend: This is an 17% increase over the 2021 number of unique finishers (64,637). If we were to ignore 2020 and focus on the 2019 pre-covid number, then this represents a 3% decrease below the number of unique finishers in 2019 (77,695)
Number of total ultra-finishes in 2022: 115,470
Trend: This is a 14% increase over the 2021 number of finishes (101,467). If we were to ignore 2020 and focus on the 2019 pre-covid number, then this represents a 11% decrease below the number of finishes in 2019 (129,839). This number also indicates that each unique finisher in 2022 completed an average of 1.53 races compared to 1.49 races in 2021, compared to 1.31 in 2020, and 1.54 in 2019.
The breakdown of total finishes by gender (on the binary) in 2022 is: 66.81% Male and 33.19% Female.
Trend:
The 2021 breakdown was 66.55% male and 33.45% female.
The 2020 breakdown was 67.57% male and 32.43% female.
The 2019 breakdown was 65.71% male and 34.29% female. 2019 was the first time since 2008 that the percentages of females within the total number of finishes had declined. If we are to ignore 2020’s numbers, the 2022 female percentage is lower than 2021 and 2019, which would mark a 3rd year of decline in the female finisher percentage. The closest our sport got to 50/50 Male/Female finishers was in 2018 with a split of 65.39% Male and 34.61% Female.
Of the 2,642 races in North America in 2022, these are the top 5 states/territories for total number of ultra-distance races held:
1.) California = 241 (+47%)
2.) Texas = 129 (+7%)
3.) Washington = 109 (New to top 5)
4.) Colorado = 106 (+12%)
5.) Florida = 98 (New to top 5)
6 & 7.) Virginia and Georgia both with 92
Of the 2,642 races in North America in 2022, Table 1 shows the breakdown for each distance comparing 2022 to 2019, and the difference in growth or decline as a percentage.
| Distance | 2022 Number | 2019 Number | Diff. | 2022 Total Finishes | 2019 Total Finishes | Diff. |
| 50k | 891 | 885 | +0.68% | 51,486 | 62,674 | -17.9% |
| 50-Miles | 328 | 321 | +2.18% | 16,101 | 19,041 | -15.44% |
| 100k | 174 | 167 | +4.19% | 6,503 | 6,913 | -5.93% |
| 100-Miles | 220 | 188 | +17.02% | 10,186 | 10,168 | +0.18% |
| 200-Miles | 9 | 11 | -18.18% | 324 | 306 | +5.88% |
To see Colorado’s numbers specifically, and the conversation I’ve already had discussing Colorado, the state with the 4th most ultras in the nation, please see my previous post HERE.
[1] Source Ultrarunning Magazine at https://calendar.ultrarunning.com/stats/ultrarunning-finishes?distance=&country=USA
[2] This chart excludes numbers for timed events and backyard ultras.
DISCUSSION
2022 Data:
Let’s start with the 2022 data. Based on the numbers shared above and considering that I believe our sport has rebounded and recovered from the Covid-19 pandemic, the data highlights that the sport of ultrarunning is in an “ebb pattern.” I understand that the optimists in the room want to believe that everything is just fine and we’re crushing it, but the data shows that we are in fact not crushing it. While the sport of trail running is indeed growing, data indicates that it’s the shorter “non-ultra” distances that are thriving; ultrarunning is in a downturn.
In this analysis, I and others in the industry ignore 2020 as an anomaly year thanks to Covid-19. When we look at 2021, we don’t give it full weight because so many races still hadn’t returned. 2022 was indeed the year that most everyone who is coming back, did; and we even added new races to the calendar. Therefore, while I compare the 2022 numbers to 2021, I also compare them to 2019; the biggest year our sport had ever seen and a year that we can accurately measure the weight of data against.
Compared to 2019:
We have an 8% increase in the number of ultra-distance races hosted in North America. Participation-wise we have a 9% decrease in the number of first-time ultra-finishers, a 3% decrease in the number of unique finishers, and an 11% decrease in the number of total finishes. Analyzing this data makes me believe that race directors just aren’t doing any kind of market analysis before they decide to start their new business or expand their existing business. Whether it’s for fun, to give back, a hobby, or other… directing a race is a business venture whether the race director wants to admit it or not.
Something I took a long time to admit and accept myself. I feel that anyone doing a market analysis would extrapolate that now is not the time to start a new ultrarunning business. What alarms me is the 9% decrease in first timers compared to an 8% increase in events. This is not sustainable. I feel that now is the time to support existing events so that the sport can grow responsibly together, rather than creating new events that compete against others in an already saturated market.
What makes it unsustainable is the fact that because our supply of races exceeds the demand, all races are now fighting over the same runners (customers) and the same volunteers (more on this below). With so many races, and a decrease in the number of available runners and volunteers, races are essentially sabotaging each other by creating a hostile environment where we are all now struggling. The fix is either we see a considerable boom in growth, or we shed some races. Knowing how stubborn ultrarunners are, I don’t see either happening. This means as we move through 2023 and 2024, it will only get harder for race directors and tensions between us will only continue to rise.
The data in the table with a breakdown by distance also tells a tale. First time ultrarunners “typically” run a 50k or 50-Miler first. While we added 6 more 50ks to the continent’s calendar, total finishes for that distance are down nearly 18%. This is an alarming statistic for the future preservation of our sport. The same is true for the 50-Mile and 100k distances, where we added 7 new races to each distance respectively yet 50-Milers (another good “first timer distance”) saw a more than 15% decrease in finishes; the 100k distance saw a nearly 6% decrease in total finishes of that distance as well. We’re seeing the biggest decrease of finishes in the shorter (“new-comer”?) distances.
When it comes to 100-milers, I’m just going to come out and say it: STOP IT. We do not need any more 100-mile races in North America. With a 17% increase in the number of 100-milers out there, the number of finishers only grew by 18 runners. Eighteen! Look, it’s the same amount of work to host a 100-mile race for 20 runners as it is for 100 runners. I truly believe that a good number of race directors will eventually walk away from this distance because the amount of effort and the lopsided balance of risk vs reward. I just don’t see that many race directors being committed to the long haul for just 20 people every year. I understand the dream that “some year it’ll catch on,” but with an over saturated market and a decline in the number of runners taking on the distance, the reality is that “some year” may never happen. Without a considerable influx of newcomers to the sport, there is long term peril for the longevity of the 100-mile distances in its current state.
Which leads us to the 200-Mile distance. A few months ago I wrote a piece for the HPRS website titled “The Rise of the 200-Mile,” and you can read that by clicking HERE. The data presented by Ultrarunning Magazine is wrong (and makes me wonder if the rest of the data could be wrong as well) because I have personally counted more than twenty 200-mile races on the North American calendar, yet their stats only claim there being nine. (I also count 122 ultra distance events in Colorado this year, and they count 106).
If their finisher data is correct, that means there are only 324 finishers across twenty-three 200-mile races. That’s 14 finishers per 200-miler on average (if we use the 9 reported by UR Mag, the average is 36 finishers). If you’re one of those folks who truly believes that “the 200-mile is the new 100-mile,” I would argue that based on the data over the last 5 years, you are 100% wrong. While even at 9 races the 200-Mile market could be considered oversaturated, knowing that there are more than 20 races of that distance boggles the mind.
There’s a new 200-Mile ultra in 2023 in Canada, being put on by Sinister Sports (of Canadian Death Race fame). The race director of this new event, called The Divide 200, Brian Gallant stated, “It is obvious that there is a demand for 200-milers based on how so many fill up quickly as well as the immediate response we received from around the world, even when we have not published the course,” I want some of what he’s smoking, because I can assure him that the majority of 200-milers are not filling at all, and the demand he imagines is there simply isn’t.
So where did everybody go? This is a question I am asked often. Here are my thoughts on why the numbers are down. A lot of runners stopped running during covid. Once races returned, it has become much harder for some runners to justify to their loved ones a return to an ultra-training schedule; especially after spending a year together rather than spending weekends apart. Simply put, there has been a sizeable shift in runner’s priorities in life and family has become a bigger focus.
Of those who did come back, many jumped back on the wagon like they never left. That was met with a whole host of injuries littering the ultra-landscape. You felt like superman, stepped away long enough to lose your fitness, but picked up where you left off. BOOM! Torn hammy.
Inflation is playing a role in everyone’s amount of expendable income, choosing to stay closer to home and travelling less for races. Runners are also seeing that you can still run long distances without having to pay for a race at all. These realizations are also coming to light due to the ever-increasing race registration fees being seen across the sport.
At HPRS we used to average an 8-10% no show rate on race day. The no-show rate highlights how many runners remain registered as of race morning, but never show up to run. That average is now up to 15-20%. Runners are waiting until the last 2-3 weeks to register, ensuring that they are uninjured, and that the weather is going to be ideal, before they spend their money on an event that doesn’t offer refunds, credits, or deferrals. In other words, the commitment isn’t there like it used to be, and for a variety of logical reasons.
Athlinks/Chronotrack sent out a survey to over 400k of their users. The survey was intended to figure out where everyone went. You can see a copy of that survey HERE. Here is what it highlights, keeping in mind that this is for the entire running industry and not just trail and/or ultra: Gender is broken down as 58% male, 41% female, and 1% Non-Binary/other. The largest age group is 55+, followed by 50-54, 45-49, and 40-44. Of their respondents, 43% of them are affiliated with running groups, while 88% of those who have not returned to racing post-pandemic are not a part of a group. Of those who have not returned to racing post-pandemic, 16% cited injury, 31% said they were out of shape or lost the habit, and 8% said running no longer appeals to them. Of those who have not returned to racing, this is what they say will get them motivated again: Getting into better shape, a running buddy/someone to commit to a race with, injury recovery, fun and exciting themes, and more affordable registration fees. We’ll refer to this data again later.
REFLECTION
2022 is the year that trail and ultrarunning completed its rebound from the Covid-19 pandemic. The remaining races that did not return in 2021 either returned in 2022, or it became evident that they are likely to never return. A lot of new race directors also brought new events online. The transfer of ownership of many events continues to remain fluid across the landscape as many race directors continue to rework their calendars, downsize by off-loading events to other directors, upsize by obtaining races from other directors, and/or creating or terminating races based on their personal level of burnout and/or available energy.
During this same address in 2021, I stated that the sport of ultra was “Strained.” In my 2022 address, I stated that the sport of ultra was “Fragile.” As part of my address in 2023, I want to review the bullet points discussed in my State of Our Sport Address from over the last 3 years:
January 2020 State of Our Sport Address:
• 2019 was our biggest Boom year ever!
• The Gender Gap (Male vs. Female Participation) Grows Further Apart
• Corporate Culture Takes a Hit
• The Culture Shift Is Beginning: Our sport has started moving away from ogling the elite for their performances and are instead caring more about who the elite are as humans. Candice Burt stated, “I believe that we are indeed seeing a shift in the Ultrarunning world, one toward adventure and exploration and away from the other side of the spectrum that is growing into increased commercialization and larger companies getting into the sport, tight competition, sponsorships & professional runners. Nothing wrong with that- it’s good for all of us to a point, but it’s not the ideal I hold as important.”
• Entry fees will increase even more.
January 2021 State of Our Sport Address: Strained
(Ultra Stories Podcast – Episode 118)
• Tensions are at an all-time high, with multiple controversies and a shift in how we conduct business
• Selective Outrage: Cancel Culture Ruining Our Sport
• Entitlement Has Increased
• It is the runner’s duty to show the way to newcomers
• RD’s caring more about the profit margin than runner safety
• Gender Gap widens again
January 2022: Fragile (Link)
• Ultrarunning is not growing, trail running is
• 100-Mile participation numbers do not support necessity for growth of that distance
• 200-Miles is not the new 100-Mile.
• Runners not trusting races as much as they used to and are primarily signing up in the 2-3 weeks leading up to a race.
• 100-Milers won’t have enough volunteers
• Need for shorter distances to bridge the new-comers into trail, then later in to Ultra.
• Selling of events to the corporations continues (time to cash out)
• Cost of entry is trending up, nickel and diming for everything.
• The sports lack of focus on Risk and Liability is the elephant in the room.
“So, what’s it going to be? Are we going to sell out to the corporations? Are we going to allow those who are all about the money to take over and drown out the little guys? Are we going to ignore and downplay our personal responsibilities as extreme athletes and race directors, then feign ignorance when something terrible happens? Are we going to allow ourselves to fall into situations where more government regulation and oversight is the answer from land managers?”
I wanted to provide these bulleted lists so that we can reflect on the trends we’ve discussed over the last 3 years. I wanted to reflect on how the discussion has evolved and what has indeed come to fruition over these last 4 years to where we are today. A lot of what I’ve discussed over these years will be brought up again, only now we can clearly see that the discussion of these trends held merit all along. Many may not have appreciated the delivery. Perhaps the delivery got in the way of you understanding or even retaining the message. I hope with this year’s address we can finally reach a consensus that this is a critical juncture in our sport’s history and we all are about to play a massive role in the direction it takes. Yes, I’m going to highlight some areas where we’re struggling, and they are pessimistic in tone. I also intend to share some insights that are positive and can help our sport in not only moving forward, but in growing.
Volunteer Struggles
As stated above, races are competing for the same runners and the same volunteers within the same market(s). In 2022, more than ever before, I have seen countless races literally begging for folks to come help by volunteering at a race; even races like the Western States 100. Western States usually gathers 400+ volunteers for the prestigious event and this year they had to beg to gather the bare minimum needed to provide the same world class experience the race is known for.
When I first got in to ultrarunning one of the very first things that my veteran mentors impressed upon me was my obligation to volunteer at races. They taught me that if all you ever do is run, and never volunteer, “you will suck the soul right out of our sport’s roots.” As the newcomers enter our sport, no one seems to be teaching them the ways of trail and ultra by impressing upon them the same values.
Look, road races are vastly different. When you have a race of 3000 runners in an urban setting, the number of potential volunteers at your disposal is in the tens of thousands. When you have a trail race taking place in the middle of nowhere, out in the mountains, with only 80-100 runners, your pool of potential volunteers is inherently much smaller. In other words, trail and ultramarathon running is a sport where we rely on our community of runners to step up and serve as a volunteer and not just always show up to run.
Never in our history have so many races struggled to find enough volunteers. Never in our history have so many races been cancelled, or had to alter their event’s logistics, because of a lack of volunteerism. Many race directors have posted on social media, in their monthly newsletters, and in correspondence to runners that if they don’t get enough volunteers, they’ll be forced to cancel the race. Some have also stated that should the trend continue entry fees will have to increase so that race directors can hire actual staff to guarantee personnel at aid stations. Race directors are also paying for volunteer seeking ads on social media.
I’ve witnessed more than one race director wearing far too many hats on race weekend to fill in volunteer gaps. This ultimately affects the runner’s experience at a race. It also affects the level of professionalism within the customer service a runner may receive from an already exhausted race director. I’ve seen RDs having to call every friend and family member who is willing to come lend a hand, whether they themselves are a runner or not, just to make a race happen. With a lack of volunteers, race directors are burning out faster and harder than ever before.
I feel that lack of volunteerism is the single greatest threat our sport faces today. If runners do not commit to also giving back in volunteer roles, the number of races available will either dwindle and/or the cost of entry will rise. This is one area where everyone needs to make a choice, and that choice is very much going to determine the direction the sport ultimately goes. The effects of this continued trend are far reaching and will shake our sport to its core. If you have not yet factored volunteerism into your 2023 calendar, get on it! There isn’t a single trail and ultrarunning event that can happen without volunteers.
Cost of Entry
In November I asked a poll question in our monthly newsletter. That question was:
Rate your level of concern for the ever-increasing entry fees in trail and ultra.
Here is how they answered:
1.) I am concerned, while I’m not priced out yet, I will be soon = 36.6%
2.) I am concerned, but this is how the story goes in a capitalist society = 26.8%
3.) I am really concerned we’re turning into Ironman = 15.9%
4.) I am neither concerned or not concerned, they could continue to rise or fall = 12.2%
5.) I am not concerned at all; I’ll pay whatever the entry fee is regardless = 8.5%
While 20.7% of respondents are generally not concerned about the cost of entry, 79.3% of respondents are. Nearly half of whom say that “while [they’re] not priced out yet, [they] will be soon.” If that’s not reason to sound the alarm, I don’t know what is.
People have always told me that “the market sets the price.” I’d like to believe that, but I think reality is more that greed is what has set the price; and runners are naïve to the actual expenses in putting on a race. There are race directors out there who are justifying price increases on Covid-19 and inflation. While those are indeed issues in our everyday lives that affects us all, neither of those issues are costing race directors thousands of more dollars to put on their trail or ultra-events. It’s literally only a few hundred dollars more at most. People also always say, “Vote with your wallet.” As runners pay the races with more exorbitant entry fees, they are ultimately voting; and their vote says, “We’ll pay anything.”
Only time will tell the direction our sport heads from here regarding cost of entry. Runners will indeed vote with their wallet. With the supply exceeding the demand on number of races, I would argue that it’s time for a decrease in the average price of entry. That’s just not how capitalism works however, so I won’t hold my breath. Still, runners are running fewer races because their expendable income only goes so far. With the higher price of entry, they have fewer dollars to spend on multiple races in a year. In the end, this is hurting us all.
When we look at the sport’s lack in volunteerism and the rising cost of entry, we don’t have to go too far outside the lines to see how this potentially ends. So, let’s look at Ironman Triathlons in 2022…
Ironman Triathlons have historically been a high-ticket adventure that is heavily populated by the 1%, after all… they can afford it. It’s more than just the price of race entry, which averages out around $777 per entry; it’s also the kit that includes an expensive bike, training expenses, travel expenses, and more. Attending an Ironman can cost the individual upwards of $7,500 – $18,000! The cost of entry, what they ask of their community of athletes, and the affects their events have on the communities they take place in, have finally come to a head.
The 2022 Ironman Championship in Kona was met with incredible pushback from Kona locals. Ironman veiled their motivations to pad the bottom line behind inclusivity. By inflating their event over two days they overstayed their welcome in Kona, disenfranchised the locals, and disenfranchised their athletes. They too begged for volunteers to assist with the 2022 event in Kona. A race that pumps a reported $100 million into the local economy shouldn’t have to beg.
They’re now going to split their championship event between Kona, Hawaii and Nice, France. On top of that, participant numbers are down, way down, compared to historic numbers across all Ironman events. Races that routinely saw north of 2500 participants each year, struggled to gather 700 this year, forcing Ironman to cancel several of their events due to their inability to foot the bill to even host them. While participation has been on a steady decline since 2015, word is that Ironman participation is at its lowest point of the last 12 years. With last minute race cancellations due to inclement weather, in addition to there being no refunds or credits, and an athlete culture that is moving away from bravado and ego; Ironman has undoubtedly lost its way and is suffering. This is ultra’s future unless our sport, and its leaders, wake up now!
Corporate Shenanigans
While we’re on the topic, let’s dive into the corporate side of our sport.
Last year we spoke about the new partnership between UTMB and Ironman. 2022 was our first look into the new realities of the UTMB/Ironman partnership. I’m sure most of you have heard stories from runners who have experienced their events firsthand; that the profit margin and commercialization of trail and ultra events is far more important than the runner experience.
I’ve heard numerous firsthand accounts that UTMB events have become logistical nightmares where runners are of course being nickel and dimed for the necessities needed to complete the adventure. Additional charges for parking, shuttles, and even drop bags sounds a lot like the same model used by Spartan Races; it is my understanding that runners are not only limited in the number of drop bags allowed on course, but those drop bags must be officially licensed UTMB drop bags purchased by the runner at the race site. There’s also reports of a lack of what some would consider to be “standard accessibility for crews.”
UTMB/Ironman is also struggling to gain a foothold on producing races in North America. They once tried to go the route of creating entirely new events in North America, only to learn that land managers won’t allow them to host thousands of runners on the trails like they’re able to do in Europe. Instead, they now turn to buying and/or creating partnerships with existing races, and those race directors are who I affectionately refer to as “sell-outs.” UTMB now claims the Canyons Endurance Runs in California, Speedgoat Mountain Races in Utah, and recently added the Desert Rats Trail Festival in Colorado, and The Grindstone Trail Running Festival in Virginia. All eyes are on the future production of these events as we see how this new corporate structure affects them.
You may remember that Spartan Trail was looking to make a huge splash in the trail and ultra-scene and really that splash came more by way of a belly flop than a cannonball. Spartan now only hosts five events with an ultra-distance in the USA. When Spartan got started with their trail and ultra initiative, they hired Charlie Engle, Scott Jurek, and Luis Escobar as race directors. I said then that it was a money grab by these gentlemen to sell out to the Spartan corporate machine. Now, only Luis is directing a Spartan Race, and my guess is because the other two quickly learned the truth about the company’s oft talked about shady business practices of not following through on contracts (See my 2022 Address for more).
Spartan continues to call numerous race organizers across the country to ask if they would be willing to direct events on Spartan’s behalf, and “No thanks” is quickly becoming the most common answer. Like their corporate counterparts in UTMB/Ironman, and the corporations that tried to dig their heels into hosting trail and ultrarunning events before them, these corporations are finding out the hard way that you can’t throw thousands of runners on the trail at a time in order to make a killing. They’ll also quickly learn, if they haven’t already, that volunteer pools are generally small when you’re a corporate machine, your reputation precedes you, and this likely isn’t going to work out like you thought it would.
Lifetime Fitness Events, who owns and operates the Leadville Race Series, was also looking to expand their trail running opportunities, only now they have just the Leadville series and the Austin Rattler. All other expansions of trail runs have been terminated. Meanwhile, they continue to shake up their mountain biking offerings, but have begun to pull away from event production in the East. It looks as though Lifetime is starting to reel it in a little bit and focus on staying closer to home.
That said, Lifetime quietly added a stipulation to the Leadville 100 “Lottery” for the 2023 race; “Life Time members who have held a digital or in-club membership for at least 6 months prior to the lottery (6/1/22) are eligible for guaranteed entry into the LT100 MTB & LT100 Run events! Members can begin registering on 12/1/22 and the deadline to claim entry for Lifetime members is 12/8/22.” Honestly, who didn’t see that coming? Leadville continues to move away from inclusivity and more towards nepotism. Kiss the ring and you’re in. Pay the membership, subscribe to their narrative regardless of how much of it is a lie, and you’re in. Push back, ask questions, or state facts and you’re out.
Finally on the corporate side there’s Aravaipa Running. They now host over 40 events across multiple states with a massive corporate office in Phoenix and a staff of over two dozen. They are the largest trail and ultra running series in the nation. From what I’ve heard from a fellow RD, they view their Colorado numbers as “less than impressive,” and it has caused them to go back to the drawing board and “consider their options.” They’ve also already parted ways with their primary race director out of Colorado Springs after just one season.
Still, Aravaipa continues to throw the weight of their money around by acquiring events (as they always have) across the west, and by stepping on the toes of existing events by bullying their way into already saturated markets with brand new offerings. On the back end, I have heard reports of a cheapened experience along the way. Aravaipa has become a market disruptor, ignoring the written and unwritten morals of race direction our sport has carried for decades, and by creating new events in the same areas and even on the same days as others. The notion that Aravaipa is “considering their options” just one year into their Colorado expansion, highlights that the bottom line and sell-outs are incredibly important to them; especially when they’ve entered a more corporate structure.
There’s big, and there’s too big. There are big ideas, and ideas that are too big. The corporate racing landscape in our country is ever evolving, and what I am seeing from the outside looking in is that it will likely end as it always has. These largest businesses will be forced to back pedal and become more insular, to curb their spending and be more strategic with their resources. The lack of volunteers will affect the runner’s experience. The rising costs of entry and participation will cause runners to think twice about what they sign up for, and they’ll likely only sign up for one instead of many of a corporation’s races. Big ideas will soon be realized as ideas that were too big.
Each one of these corporate entities have raised their entry fees or already charge above the national and/or regional averages for similar distances. Each of these corporate entities have made adjustments that seemingly make it harder for you to finish their event, causing you to DNF much earlier in the event… presumably to have to spend less money on runners (aid stations) later in a race. They’re literally banking on you not making it. They’re nickel and diming you for things that have long come as part of your registration fees. The main focus of these entities seems to not be on the runner and their experience, but on the bottom line.
Predictions: Spartan will be the first to back out of ultra and only focus on the shorter distances. I’ve heard that UTMB and Ironman don’t even actually talk to each other, so I give that partnership the time to run the course of their contract and then it ends. Lifetime will depart with a few of their biking events, and perhaps even the Austin Rattler, and it will hire it’s 8th or 9th race director over the same timeframe that I’ve been at the helm alone of HPRS. Aravaipa will either continue to expand until it ruins its own product from being unable to maintain its experiences, or it will be forced to downsize and reel the regional tentacles back in to focus on events closer to home. Bottom line is that the corporations have never won in trail and ultra, and that doesn’t appear to be changing any time soon. It makes one wonder, when will they learn from history?
Forward
So far, we’ve discussed our sports struggles with finding volunteers, the ever-rising costs of entry, and how we overcome these two challenges will ultimately dictate the future direction of our sport. We’ve talked about the corporate racing landscape and how most folks might be seeing that view through a pair of rose-colored glasses, when the reality is that racing with corporations is not going as well as the corporations had hoped.
We also talked about the data and that’s what I want to turn back to now as we discuss the path forward.
Throughout the year I received quarterly newsletters from our registrar, RunSignUp.com. RunSignUp is now the premiere provider of race registration services in the country. A large number of trail and ultra races have left Ultrasignup for RunSignUp; and RunSignUp holds most of the market share for running registrations. The last quarterly report was sent out in October. At that time, RunSignUp reported that registrations across the entire sport of running is down 15% on average in comparison to 2019. While this number may seem bleak, they do provide hope by saying that the sport had a strong fall with improving registrations numbers; down 9% in October as opposed to the 22% in June or 16% in July.
These numbers can be a bit deceiving. While events are struggling, running is still very much growing. That’s right, industry insiders are telling us that running is still booming, while participation in events is on the decline. Why is that?
From a trends report, “The running community is growing rapidly. “One in six of the survey participants has only started running in the past two years,” So why is it that events are taking a huge hit while the sport itself is growing?
A Culture Change. That’s why.
This is the part of the address where optimism comes into play. For some of you however, you might scoff because your fragile ego gets bruised.
For a long time now I’ve said in pre-race meetings, in live shows, and at races that “No one cares about your Strava!” Guess what? I wasn’t wrong. Last week Strava cut 15% of their workforce. Why? Because a lot of athletes no longer find the product useful, have grown tired of the “membership economy,” and people have begun to realize that we don’t actually do this for “Kudos.” There is a mass exodus of exercise tracking applications. Strava isn’t the only one who has levied layoffs; others include Wahoo, Zwift, and Peloton.
While at The Running Event in Austin this November, I opened the pages of the December issue of Running Insight. The first column appears on page 6, and is written by Matt Powel, a sports industry advisor at The NPD Group. His article is titled “Change of Pace” and is focused on shoe sale trends in the industry. Something he said in his article could also be applied to races. He said, “The pandemic also brought new participants to running as an activity; however, many brands and retailers did not adapt to these new runners. Specialty sports retailers have instinctively focused on pinnacle consumers highly experienced in the activity – and shop owners of specialty shops tend to be at this level. That’s why many consumers find shopping at sport specialty outlets to be intimidating. Making customers uncomfortable – or selling them a product that is above their skills and needs – is a sure way to lose new consumers.”
I believe in this quote 100%, and I am going to take what this gentleman is saying and apply it to the race space; because I think it applies. There are a lot of new participants in our sport and I feel like it is up to all of us to help not only welcome them in with open arms, but to take on the responsibility we share in “showing them the way.” We do that by expressing to them the importance of volunteerism and the rules (written and unwritten) that govern our activity; things like not throwing your cup on the ground or picking up those gel wrapper tags.
I feel like we are at a moment where race directors need to wake up a realize that we need to be focusing on what the broader community of trail and ultrarunners want. Not what you think they want, but what the data shows that they want. If we go back to the survey that Athlinks/Chronotrack conducted, we can see that runners simply want to be healthy, they want to belong and be a part of an amazing community, they want to have an amazing experience, they want new and creative race ideas and themes, and they don’t want to pay a whole lot to be able to acquire these things.
Notice how there’s no mention here about “the race,” awards, age group awards, podiums, or recognition? ISPO, a company that measures trends in sports via surveys, recently published some findings on this topic. If you click on the article, I want to focus on “Trend 1” where they state two important points:
“A look at the motivation for running provides insights: “Running is much more recognized as a health sport. The personal factors of health, fitness and stress relief are now the top three motivations for running,”
And “A side effect of the “newcomers”: Relatively speaking, the number of competitive runners is declining. Gone are the days when 80 percent of survey participants also competed. In the current reader survey, 58 percent said they had taken part in a running race in 2021 – the lowest figure in the history of the survey.”
RunningUSA will be hosting their yearly conference this February in Denver. As part of that conference, they promise to “unveil important new research” that focuses on “Gen Z attitudes on fitness.” You can read the press release HERE. While no one has seen the results of this research as of yet, they provide a taste with the following quote, “Unlike Gen X and Boomers, who were interested in running to remain fit and healthy, Gen Z is different. For them, exercise isn’t about fitness, it’s about fun and purpose,” said Derrick Feldman, Managing Director of INFLUENCE|SG.”
All of the information provided above, the results of surveys conducted across the industry, and as evidenced by the recent layoffs of some of running’s biggest software brands leads to what I feel is the ultimate conclusion: Newcomers, the younger crowd, and perhaps a bigger majority of runners than you might choose to believe… don’t care about the race, they don’t care about your Strava, they don’t care about your “ranking,” they don’t care about the podium or age group awards. They just want to exercise, feel good, have a great time, and belong. They want to adventure and explore together and for it to not cost an arm and a leg to do so.
I ran into a recently retired race director at The Running Even in Austin and we talked about this very topic. Something he said stuck to me and it fits into the conversation is, “We went through that period where we ogled the elite and really got into focusing on “the race.” That time is over; it’s gone. Those who care about Anton or Jim’s actual performance, or what they had for breakfast, are now in the minority. It’s all about the experience now. It’s all about belonging.”
Inclusivity
Which brings me to the final topic in this year’s address, inclusivity.
I saw a stat in one of the race director Facebook groups that said there are 200,000 road races in the United States and only 200 of them have inclusive non-binary policies and initiatives. A few times in 2022, I came across a question from a race director that sounded something like this: “We welcomed non-binary and trans athletes to register however they identify for our race this year; and then someone who is a biological man, but identifies as a woman, won. What do I do?” It seems strange, almost hypocritical, for a race director to dive into the world of inclusion without having the knowledge, wherewithal, or guts to follow through with the inclusive policies they sought to implement. To me the answer is simple, “you give them the prize, congratulate them, thank them for coming, and move on. That’s what you signed up for!”
I really believe that if we get rid of prize money, podiums, and age group awards, this ongoing argument about “the race” will become a moot point. Based on the data shared above regarding the cultural shift within the sport, it’s not that extreme of a suggestion. I feel that the reason we can’t and won’t get rid of the prize money, podiums, and age group awards is because we have an ego problem. We have a problem with our own perceived levels of importance. We have an issue with anyone who isn’t “us” making any progress that could be perceived as “unfair.” So instead of doing what sounds like an easy solution, we instead highlight another issue within our sport.
We have an intolerance issue.
Intolerance is defined as an “unwillingness to accept views, beliefs, or behavior that differ from one’s own.” It’s going to be hard, but I want to provide a few examples.
First is my own personal experience at HPRS. As we implemented policies that focus on inclusivity, equity, equality, diversity, and accessibility, we received a whole host of immature, threatening, offensive, and wholly intolerant responses for having done so. Runners unsubscribed from our mailing list and in the box where one can supply a reason for the unsubscribe were comments like “too woke for me,” and “too left leaning for my liking,” or “keep politics out of running.” Another runner personally emailed me to say, “My wife and I always wondered if you were gay, and now we know for sure that you are.”
Creating policies that are inclusive and welcoming of people of all walks of life is not a political issue, it’s a human issue. Creating these policies have little to do with being woke, and everything to do with meeting the non-discriminatory requirements of our permits from The USDA-United States Forest Service; those requirements specifically state that we must adhere to their non-discrimination statement. So, while runners assume that we are making a political statement or simply trying to express some kind of “liberal wokeness,” we’re actually just following the letter of the law required within our permits. Guess what? EVERY RACE that is permitted by the USFS is required to adhere to their non-discrimination statement. Essentially, ALL TRAIL RACES PERMITED BY THE USFS ARE REQUIRED TO HAVE A NON-BINARY OPTION DURING REGISTRATION.
This should be enough to highlight our sports intolerance issue, but there’s another. Last month, The Western States 100 announced their updated policy for transgender athletes. Take a look at the comments on their Twitter account (@WSER) to get a full view of the intolerance our sport is faced with. One comment always strikes me as ignorant, “Discriminates against women by making their category open to males.” When people make this statement, they fail to acknowledge the other side. You imply that the women’s race is the only one that matters and is the only one that is affected. Why can’t we all get to a place where we’re worrying about the fairness and inclusivity of our sport for all gender identities, instead of only worrying about one (1) gender identity? The next argument is usually something to the effect of men having an athletic advantage over women, despite recent research showing that the longer the race the more women are outperforming men.
I invite those of you with this view to look at a discussion on the ACLU website on the issue. Specifically, the section titled “FACT: Including trans athletes will benefit everyone. MYTH: The participation of trans athletes hurts cis women.” Wherein it states, “Many who oppose the inclusion of trans athletes erroneously claim that allowing trans athletes to compete will harm cisgender women. This divide and conquer tactic get it exactly wrong. Excluding women who are trans hurts all women. It invites gender policing that could subject any woman to invasive tests or accusations of being “too masculine” or “too good” at their sport to be a “real” woman. Further, this myth reinforces stereotypes that women are weak and in need of protection.”
Even bigger is the issue that by making these statements, you are also assuming that every runner is on the binary. Your statement assumes that the only race that matters is the women’s race, with no mention of the men’s race. I’ll even crawl out onto the limb and mention Trail Sisters, whose policies cater specifically to women in our sport. Their policies, and these opinions that are shared about the women’s race, are discriminatory to individuals who do not identify on the binary. This brings me to ask, why do we need to be so focused on putting people into “categories?” Why can’t we all just look at each other as HUMAN?
At HPRS, less than 1% of our registrations are individuals who identify as a gender not on the binary. Sport wide, 1% or less, of all runners identify as a gender not on the binary. This means that this outrage, these intolerant and offensive comments, are being expressed over individuals who make up less than 1% of our sport’s population. Want to know what other group makes up 1% or less of our sports population? Those who have a chance at winning prize money, and those who care about “the race.”
Considering the discussion points and evidence discussed above about our culture shift, and what is important to the beginners coming in to our sport; considering the efforts of groups like The Running Industry Diversity Coalition (RIDC) and the efforts of The Compete Network; considering the lengths our registration companies are going to in order to provide us a way to be more inclusive of non-binary athletes; considering the non-discrimination statement of the USDA-USFS and how they are being more proactive in assessing a permittees adherence to that statement… If you are not for policies that promote Inclusivity, Accessibility, Diversity, Equity and Equality you are in the minority. You are on the wrong side of history. You will realize quickly that the wave of inclusion is a tsunami that you cannot and will not stop and your ignorant and intolerant comments do nothing to propel our sport forward.
Look… This is the question: What side of history do you want to be on? Why is everyone required to subscribe to your views of a social construct? This is not unlike countless other issues in our society’s past where the voice of reason, equality, diversity, and inclusion has historically won. Inclusion is our future. Gen Z views inclusivity a hell of a lot different than Boomers and some of Gen X, and they are our future. As a sport, we can either evolve or die. This is how the earth has always worked, evolution itself; evolve or die.
All of this is to say that I believe the state of our sport is “critical.”
I know many out there who read this, if you read this far, don’t have a care in the world about anything I’ve just said. True to form over the years, you’ll say that this is hyperbole or me just adding drama to a sport that doesn’t need any. To you I would say that this is very much the reality our sport lives in right now based on the evidence and reasoning I have provided, and it is absolutely something we need to be talking about. Fixing these issues after they break will be too late. We must get ahead of these issues for the future preservation of our sport’s roots. We have major issues with the supply and demand of races, the cost of entry, and corporate shenanigans. Our sport is more a business than it ever has been before, and greed is still guiding the decisions of many, while we walk away from and ignore our roots and traditions and the many responsibilities bestowed upon us.
There is considerable hope for our future. The reason I list the state of our sport as “critical” is because of what is required for us to get there. We need the new minority in our sport to wake up and realize that “the race” is no longer on the forefront of the collective conscious, that no one really cares about your Strava or ranking, and that the focus on our sport moving forward is not just going to be accessibility, diversity, equality, equity, and inclusion, but it is going to focus more on belonging, fun, and unique experiences. The data and evidence have been provided to you. If you want to debate, let’s see evidence of your own, otherwise HPRS is going to continue to move in that one direction we know best… FORWARD.
—
AT HPRS
2022 HPRS Registrations Data:
Male = 1001 (58%)
Female = 722 (42%)
NB/Other = 7 (0.4%)
States: 43 + DC
AK, AR, AZ, CA, CO, FL, GA, IA, ID, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, MO, MT, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WA, WI, WV, WY
Countries: 5
USA, CAD, MEX, FRA, THA
2022 HPRS Finishers Data:
Male = 776 (60%)
Female = 517 (40%)
NB/Other = 5 (0.4%)
Total = 1,298
Total Finisher’s Miles Completed: 35,162.87
The Human Potential Running Series just completed one of its best years ever. Our yearly registrations are counted during the time period between December 1 and November 30th of the following year. In this case, December 1, 2021 through November 30, 2022. For this past year’s time frame, we handled 1,944 total registrations across all of our events. This is a NEW HPRS RECORD for the most registrations through that timeframe (1,864 in 2019), and is a 19% increase over 2021, and a 4% increase over 2019.
We also keep track of registrations handled during each individual month of the year. We started this timeframe with an all time record for registrations handled in one month, with 339 registrations in December 2021. We then broke that record in October 2022 with 352 registrations handled. We’re starting the new period (12/1/2022 – 11/30/2023) with another NEW HPRS RECORD for most registrations handled in a single month at 375.
For the timeframe 12/1/2021 through 11/30/2022 we also set NEW HPRS RECORDS for registrations handled in the months of December, January, February, March, October, and November.
Between January 1, 2022 and December 31, 2022; we welcomed 1,856 runners through the doors at HPRS, which is the second most runners in a year since we started in 2014. The best year is still 2020, when we had 2001 runners join us at the only place where running never stopped during the Covid-19 pandemic.
On the volunteer side we graciously accepted help from 259 unique individuals, which is second behind our 2021 number of 261 unique individuals. These volunteers provided 4,022.5 hours of volunteer service at HPRS Races and through trail work efforts, a NEW HPRS RECORD, breaking the old mark of 3,831 (2021). Volunteers provided HPRS with an average of 14.68 hours per volunteer in 2021, this number increased to 15.53 hours per volunteer in 2022.
We continue to maintain our commitment to accessibility by not raising our rates in 2023. We actually lowered our entry fees for the 200-Mile distance to match the industry average nationwide ($400), and we lowered our 50-Mile entry fees because we feel that the Colorado average is getting out of hand. Inflation has affected us, minimally, on the back end of our business. It has also affected us in our every day lives alongside all of you. We do not use inflation or Covid as a justification for increasing fees. We have instead resolved to accepting that inflation “is what it is” and we will instead swallow any increases in expenses in order to better serve our community of runners.
We continue to have one of the most generous volunteer programs in the sport, paying volunteers $10/hr in HPRS Credits for time served. We also offer $20/hr for those volunteering between the hours of 10p and 6a. We also provide a comp race entry to anyone who completes a trail work day with HPRS in 2023.
We have not been approached by any entity regarding the acquisition of our events, or gauging our interest. Should UTMB/Ironman approach us about partnering with, or acquiring, any of our events they will receive the answer that aligns with HPRS’ values and why we started this series to begin with. We will continue to push back and speak out against the corporations who continue to bastardize our sport and its traditions.
We continue to be at the forefront of inclusivity, diversity, equity, equality, and accessibility within the sport of trail and ultrarunning. We continue to add shorter distances to our series of races. We will be looking closely at our cut-offs in order to afford more opportunities for runners to explore with us with a decreased threat of failure or mis-adventure. Our policies for athletes who do not identify on the binary remain in tact and active. We will not be adding a podium or age group awards and will continue to celebrate all runners as equal. We have adjusted our refund, deferral and credit policies to be more runner friendly. We remain a “people over profit” series of races where the roots of our sport are respected while we also adjust to the current landscape.
Hanging in my office is the first poster I ever made for HPRS, intended to hang in local running stores as our ad. On the poster it says, “Finally, a new ultra series designed with all runners in mind. No more exorbitant entry fees, no more just celebrating the front runners. This series is about you, all of you.” Over the years we have received considerable push back from the ego driven who often ask, “Is it even a race?” Based on the data, and the research done across the entire sport of running, it is my honor and privilege to say to those of you who have criticized our approach, and who have doubted us, that we have been at the forefront of the inevitable since we started. You may not like it, or understand it, but the sport has finally caught up to what HPRS is, and has always been, about. We are proud of who we are and how we do it. We are the perfect home for the new comers in our sport who are indeed looking to belong, to explore, and to experience.
In the year to come, we will be producing a series of videos to help educate the new comers who have come in to our sport. We’ll also be producing videos for race directors that can help them make sound decisions with business matters, as well as inclusivity initiatives. We’re going to continue to promote our sport and its long standing values, while tackling the difficult conversations that need to be had; because a rising tide lifts all shifts. Join us, and let’s move mountains together.