By HPRS RD John Lacroix
PREFACE
When I started HPRS in 2014, I created a spreadsheet (like most ultrarunners do) of every trail race in Colorado of a half-marathon in distance or longer. I then recorded how many finishers each of those races had that year, as well as for the 10 years prior and in all years since then. Naturally, what I now have in my possession is a detailed tracking of every one of those races and the ebbs and flows in numbers they see from year to year. Essentially, it’s a total market analysis of every trail race of a half marathon in length or longer, within the state of Colorado, for the last 19 years.
One of the flaws in the spreadsheet is that it only shows finishers for each race, because it is impossible for any of us to track the total number of registrants any race has. In most cases this information is not public, and where it is we don’t get to see who or how many runners have withdrawn from a race in the months and weeks leading up. There are also anomaly years in the data where a weather event caused a race’s finisher number to decrease dramatically from one year to the next.
Generally, it’s not the year-to-year information that I am interested in as much as the 3 to 5-year trend derived from the information. In other words, a weather event causing a decrease in finishers doesn’t affect my interpretation of the info, I just ignore the weather year.
HPRS is the only series where I track registration data on the same spreadsheet. Obviously HPRS is the only series I truly have registration data for. While all other races are on the sheet with their number of yearly finishers, HPRS races reflect total registrations for each distance and not number of finishers.
This spreadsheet serves as an invaluable tool as it affords me a clear overview of how the sport of trail and ultrarunning is doing within the confines of the state of Colorado. When I write my “State of the Sport Address” in January, I not only use this information but information I am able to collect from other online databases, and industry market analysis done by a host of other sources.
I preface this article with the above only to paint an accurate picture of what information I am working with to discuss the topic with you. While some of what you are about to read is a matter of opinion, it is an informed opinion based on factual data specifically gathered to look at trends in the market. Again, this is just my professional opinion and the opinions of others may differ. I am open to healthy, respectful, data based discussion for those who want to engage.
THE DATA
It remains a great time to be a trail and ultra-runner in the state of Colorado. In terms of ultra-running, Colorado hosted 119 ultra distance races in 2023, a 2.5% decrease compared to 2022 (122) and still the fourth most of any US state. Unfortunately for the runner, Colorado continues to maintain one of the most expensive average costs of entry in the nation.
• As stated, 119 ultra distance events were on the Colorado calendar heading in to 2023, a 2.5% decrease from 2022.
• Of those 119 events, 9 of them (8.4%) were held for the very first time this year, and 13 of them (10.9%) were cancelled. This left 106 ultras held in Colorado in 2023.
• 54 of the 106 races saw an increase in their number of finishers, which accounts for 51.9% of the ultra distance races in the state.
• On the other side of this statistic, 38 races saw a decrease in the number of finishers, which accounts for 35.9% of the ultra distance races in the state.
Colorado Ultra Distance Events in 2023
Total Colorado Ultras on the calendar heading into 2023 = 119
Total Cancelled = 13
Total Held = 106
New this year = 9 (8.4%) [2022 Numbers = 29 for 24%]
Increase in # of Finishers = 55 (51.9%) [2022 Numbers = 33 for 27%]
Decrease in # of Finishers = 38 (35.9%) [2022 Numbers = 43 for 35%]
I want to also note that 13 races, that’s 10.9% of the 119, were either cancelled or had no recorded finishers at all in 2023. If you were to combine the races that were cancelled, that had no finishers, and had a decrease in their finisher numbers in 2023, the total would be 51 races accounting for 42.9% of all ultra-distance races in Colorado.
Races that saw no change in finisher numbers as compared to 2022 = 3 (2.8%)
CANCELLED Ultra Distances This Year = 13 (10.9%):
Aravaipa (6): Pike’s Peak Apex 50k – Rough Canyon 50-Mile/50k – Ring the Springs 50-mile – Durango Skyline 50-Mile/50k
Revenant (3): Tava’s Shadow 100k/50k – Tava Canyon 50-Mile
Mad Moose (1): Bobcat 50k
Misc (3): Ole School 50-Mile/50k – Divide 100-Mile
NEW Ultra Distances This Year = 9 (8.4%):
HPRS (2): Cuchara Snowshoe 50k – Latino Ultra Nature Adventure (LUNA) 50k
GNAR (1): Red Feather 50-Mile
Aravaipa (3): Ram Party 50k – Ring the Springs 100k/50k
Tempest (1): Mace’s Hideout 50mi
Gemini (1): Desert Rats 100k (UTMB)
Misc. one-offs (1): Methodist Mountain 50k
(See More Data Below)
DISCUSSION
As I stated above, the data I have shared above is usually where I start prior to writing my “State of the Sport” address in January. After taking a deep dive into Colorado, I back out and take a deep dive into the rest of the country. The data I collect and collected by others (Registrars, Industry publications and emails, and Ultrarunning Magazine), as well as the many discussions being had on email list-servs and in social media channels, is what informs the address I give year to year. This year I will again add information compiled from industry insiders (Brands, running stores, and industry data specialists).
For the purposes of this discussion, I want to focus solely on Colorado’s data and have an honest conversation with you about what the current scene is, and where I honestly feel it goes from here. This is probably one of those conversations where while the data and discussion is sound, you may not like the delivery. My intent is not to fluff the discussion or put a cherry on top, but to just give it to you real and raw.
A More Sustainable Growth
I want to start with the data. The number of races that saw a decrease in their number of finishers in 2023 increased 0.9% as compared to 2022’s numbers (35%). Even though 35.9% of all ultras saw a decrease, which saw an increase as compared to 2022, the number of races that saw an increase in finishers soared with 51.9% of ultras. In 2022 only 25% of all ultra-distance races in Colorado saw an increase.
These numbers align with how the rest of the sport has fared this year as well. Across the board, industry professionals have declared that the effects of Covid-19 on our sport have ended. Running has realized a full rebound back to 2019 numbers (pre-covid), as has trail running, and ultramarathon running. “Covid” is no longer a valid reason for a race’s poor performance.
In 2022 I mentioned how Colorado saw a 24% increase in the number of new events that year. I stated, “With 35% of all ultra-distance races in Colorado seeing a decrease in their number of finisher’s as compared to last year, and with only 25% of all ultra-distance races seeing an increase, do we really need a 24% increase in new events?”
The answer came in 2023 as we welcomed only 9 new races (8.4%) to the calendar. With only 9 new races, and 13 cancellations, this left us with a -4 differential on races. I really believe that this is what led to the huge increase in the percentage of races that realized an increase in finishers as compared to 2022. This kind of growth is much more sustainable than 24% new races in 2022. My hope is that more race directors will take note of this and not follow up 2024 with 20% or greater growth in new races. We’re not there yet, and I’ll explain why in a bit.
Entry Fees
Most of those races/series who did not raise their rates in 2023 have done so for 2024. Most of those races/series who raised their rates in 2023 have elected not to in 2024. Yes, some series have raised their rates for the 4th or 5th year in a row. As I begin to collect race registration fee data for 2024, I do notice something interesting going on. One of the trends I recognized in 2023, was that a handful of races were getting rid of tiered pricing. As we head into 2024, I am seeing a new trend.
Really it is two trends once again relating to tiered pricing. The first trend I see is that some races are raising their early bird/tier 1 pricing by $30-$40, but tier 2 and tier 3 only increases $5-$10. This means that the prices between tiers 1 through 3 are more uniform in nature, and no matter when you register, you’re paying closer to tier 3 pricing.
The other trend I am seeing is that races are choosing to only raise early bird/tier 1 pricing by $5, but tier 2 by $40. In other words, they’re trying to force you to register earlier for a race by incentivizing tier one pricing as indeed being the best deal (We do that here with RegFest). The best examples of this is the Run Rabbit Run 50-Mile. They open registration at $200, which is a $5 increase over 2023’s price. But tier 2 pricing for the same race and distance is $275. That’s a $75 increase from tier 1 to tier 2, and a $40 increase of their tier 2 pricing over 2023’s number.
These trends are here because a lot of race directors are struggling to adjust to the new post-covid reality with race registrations. Pre-Covid, a lot of ultrarunners would register for their entire calendar of races for the year to come, in the fall and early winter months of the year prior. So you’d register about NOW for ALL of your 2024 races. Since Covid-19, most races are seeing 60% or more of all race registrations coming in the last 3-4 weeks prior to race day. Instead of signing up earlier, runners are all signing up considerably later. This is cause for a huge amount of anxiety for a lot of RDs because it is preventing them from planning logistics as they used to. There’s a lot more guessing at play.
Average Cost of Entry in Colorado: Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3 (% change from previous year)
Average cost of 100-Milers in 2022: $343, $367, $375
Average cost of 100-Milers in 2023: $350, $378, $387 (+2%, 3%, 3.2%)
Average cost of 100-Milers in 2024: $359, $389, $399 (+2.6%, 2.9%, 3.1%)
Most Expensive 2023: Run Rabbit Run 100 ($475)
Least Expensive 2023: The Great Divide 100 ($280)
Average Cost of 100k in 2022: $172, $190, $203
Average Cost of 100k in 2023: $195, $207, $221 (+13.4%, 9%, 8.9%)
Average Cost of 100k in 2024: $200, $215, $228 (+2.6%, 3.9%, 3.2%)
Most Expensive 2023: Ring the Springs ($265)
Least Expensive 2023: Sangre de Cristo ($160)
Average Cost of 50-Mile in 2022: $145, $163, $173
Average Cost of 50-Mile in 2023: $157, $172, $183 (+8.3%, 5.5%, 5.8%)
Average Cost of 50-Mile in 2024: $160, $179, $183 (+1.9%, 4.1%, 0%) [Data Incomplete]
Most Expensive 2023: Run Rabbit Run ($290)
Least Expensive 2023: Collegiate Peaks ($110)
Average Cost of 50k in 2022: $111, $123, $133
Average Cost of 50k in 2023: $119, $131, $141 (+7.2%, 6.5%, 6%)
Average Cost of 50k in 2024: $123, $136, $146 (+3.4%, 3.8%, 3.6%) [Data Incomplete]
Most Expensive 2023: Never Summer 60k ($205)
Least Expensive 2023: Creede Mountain ($50)
Despite Colorado already having some of the most expensive entry fees for ultras in the nation, rates increase from 2022 to 2023, and in many cases will increase again in 2024. The average entry fee for a 100-mile in Colorado is approaching the national average entry fee for 200-milers ($400).
The biggest entry fee increases in 2024 will belong to (in order): The Continental Divide 50k, the San Juan Solstice 50-Mile, UTMB’s Desert Rats Trail Runs, 24 Hours at Palmer Lake, Run Rabbit Run 50-Mile, and Leadville Trail 100.
CONCLUSION
Trail and ultra running is HEALTHY and has fully rebounded from Covid 19. The ultra scene in Colorado is still very much saturated. While I don’t think there are more races than available runners, there are more races than willing volunteers. As more and more races are scheduling their events on the same exact day, within 20 miles as the crow flies of another race, race directors are failing to see the dilemma they are creating. That dilemma is that all races are pulling volunteers from the same volunteer pool, and no level of begging will generate more volunteers to pull from. Check out my “State of Our Sport Address” next month for my take on what could happen as we move forward.
It is my hope that race directors within Colorado will continue with this more sustainable pace of growth, and that in 2024 and/or 2025 we won’t see another huge influx (20% or greater growth) in new ultra distance events within the state. It is my hope that more races will find a way to schedule events off of each other’s weekends and support one another in sharing volunteers and paying customers. If this does not take place, we will continue to see the trend of more races disappearing than those coming online, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing as we look to have a more sustainable calendar and there is indeed a “culling of the herd.”
Despite the fact that a lot of runners have expressed concern of being completely priced out of running in ultras, fees continue to climb at about the same clip as they have over the last 2-3 years. I don’t see an end to that. Those who did not raise rates in 2024 will likely raise them for 2025. Those who do raise their rates in 2024, and likely to stay put with their pricing in 2025. You will also continue to see races shaving off parts of the experience (like less swag), while increasing the number of things you may have to pay extra for (like parking). This is all to increase the profit margin for races. Yes, inflation and interest rates have affected us all; race directors are going to get creative in increasing their profit margins without increasing entry fees too terribly much.
MORE DATA
2023 Ultras UP (54)
Running Up For Air 24-hr (Feb), 50k (Oct); Desert Rats 50k; Royal Gorge Groove 50k; Rattler 50k; Run the Ranch 12-Hr, 6-hr; Cheyenne Mountain 50k; Ram Party 50-Mile, Marathon; Valkyrie 50k; Weld Your Mettle 50k; Endure 12-hr; Collegiate Peaks 50-Mile; Quad Rock 50-Mile; Mace’s Hideout 100-Mile; Ring the Springs 100-Mile; Great Divide 50k; South Park 38-Mile; San Juan Solstice 50-Mile; Power of Four 50k; Grand Mesa 50-Mile, 50k; Pikes Peak 50-Mile, 50k; Last Call 50-Mile, 55k; High Lonesome 100-Mile; Silver Rush 50-Mile; Continental Divide 50k; Sheep Mountain 50k; Creede 100-Mile; Red Feather 50k; West Line Winder 50k; Sawatch Ascent 50k; Sangre de Cristo 200-Mile, 100-Mile; Elk Mountain Traverse; Run Rabbit Run 100-Mile, 50-Mile; Bear Chase 50k, 50-Mile, 100k; Creede Mountain 50k; American Heros 24-hr, 9-hr, 100-Mile; Rio Grande 100-Mile; Indian Creek 50-Mile; Above the Clouds 50k; Sage Burner 50k; Bridge Burner 50k; Kessell Run 50-Mile; Sawmill 50k; Cold Rush 50k.
2023 Ultras Down (38)
Stories 30-hr, 15-hr, 6-hr; Running Up For Air 12-Hour (Feb), 6-Hour (Feb); Runs with Scissors 50k; Greenland Trail 50k; Ouray Backyard Ultra; Endure 24-Hr; North Fork 50k; South Park Marathon; Cuchara 50-Miles, 60k; Silverheels 100-Mile; Chase the Moon 12-Hr; Silverton Alpine 50k; Never Summer 100k, 60k; Ouray 100-Mile; Sheep Mountain 50-Mile; High Five 100-Mile; Telluride Mountain Run 38-Mile; Leadville 100-Mile; Hardrock 100-Mile; Devil on the Divide 50k; Sangre de Cristo 50-Mile, 50k; Snow Mountain Ranch 50k; Crested Butte 53-Mile, 55k; 24 Hours of Palmer Lake; Ouray 50-Mile; Mountain Rats 55k; Indian Creek 50k; Hanging Flume 50k; Bingo Levels 3 and 4; Kessell Run 60k;
2023 Ultras No Change (3)
Ridgeline Trail 50k; North Fork 50-Mile; Sangre de Cristo 100k
Biggest increase in # of finishers compared to 2022 (more than 100 finishers): Bridge Burner 50k (+65.3%), Sawatch Ascent 50k (+51.3%), UTMB Desert Rats 50k (+43.4%)
Biggest decrease in # of finishers compared to 2022: Running Up For Air 6-Hour (-85%), Telluride Mountain 38-Mile (-67.7%), Chase the Moon 12-Hour (-21.4%)
Ultras that saw a decrease in finishers for 2 or more years in a row (# of years): Sangre de Cristo 50-Mile (2), Sangre de Cristo 50k (4), Indian Creek 50k (4), Greenland Trail 50k (2), Chase the Moon 12-Hour (2), Ouray 50-Mile (2), Silverton Alpine 50k (2), Crested Butte 50-Mile and 55k (2), Snow Mountain Ranch 50k (2), Hanging Flume 50k (2), High Five 100-Mile (2)